Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $175,927$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,080.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(183,080.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,425$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,792.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,792.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,045$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,140$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(250 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,224.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(9.94 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(335.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,705$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $172,114$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,250.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,250.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,729$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(980 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,545.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,545.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,787$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,180$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,862.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,862.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $299$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(77.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(283.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,722$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,904$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,368.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,368.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $283$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(27.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(278.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,881$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,571$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 70.3)}}\) (asimptote \(125,350.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $783$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,688.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 146.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,688.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,449$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,879$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(955 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,296.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 88.0)}}\) (asimptote \(99,296.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $62$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,248$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,731$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(207 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,211.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,211.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.01 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,096$ on 2020-06-09