Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $175,927$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,080.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(183,080.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,425$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,792.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,792.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,045$ on 2020-06-09

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,140$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(250 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,224.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(9.94 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(335.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,705$ on 2020-06-09

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $172,114$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,250.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,250.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,729$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(980 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,545.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,545.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,787$ on 2020-06-09

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,180$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,862.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,862.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $299$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(77.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(283.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,722$ on 2020-06-09

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,904$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,368.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,368.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(27.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(278.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,881$ on 2020-06-09

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,571$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 70.3)}}\) (asimptote \(125,350.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $783$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,688.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 146.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,688.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,449$ on 2020-06-09

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,879$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(955 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,296.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 88.0)}}\) (asimptote \(99,296.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $62$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,248$ on 2020-06-09

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,731$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(207 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,211.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,211.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.01 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,096$ on 2020-06-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Japan recovered 91%
Turkey recovered 72%
Georgia recovered 68%
Maldives recovered 33%
Kuwait recovered 32%
Sri Lanka recovered 16%
Kazakhstan recovered 14%
Tajikistan recovered 4%

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,111$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,737.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,737.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $920$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(90.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{960.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(960.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,050$ on 2020-06-09

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $818$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(119 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{798.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(798.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.79 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-06-09

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,942$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(45.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,109.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 70.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,109.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-09

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $924$ on 2020-06-09

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,859$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,199.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,199.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.5 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $791$ on 2020-06-09